There’s a foundational myth about President-elect Donald J Trump, that he never actually wanted to be President.
And yet, here we are, counting down the days until the most unlikely leader of the free world takes his place in US political history (again).
The first felon to be elected US Commander in Chief. Only the second President to be booted out of office and then reelected. And seemingly, the first politician to be completely impervious to traditional reputational risk management.
But what can professional communicators learn from his reelection campaign?
The first thing I’d say is that we’re actually talking about two campaigns. One was run astutely, by seasoned political operatives. It had laser-like messaging and poured money and resources into critical constituencies.
The other was none of those things. It was Trump 2.0. The man at his most natural. And never the twain campaigns shall meet.
Not much for we comms folk to chew over there. So let’s look a bit closer.
The victory margin was bigger than anyone expected. But if you look at the data, you can see a steady and ultimately devastating under performance by Vice President Kamala Harris in all demographics when you compare against President Joe Biden’s victory in 2020. The data suggests that a better Democratic candidate may well have beaten Trump.
So why didn’t voters turn out for the Dems? There’s much hand-wringing going on across the pond, with senior Democrats, commentators and politicos suggesting that President Biden stayed too long.
I’ve heard President Barack Obama take some heat for the electoral deal he made with the Clintons in 2016. If he’d let President Biden run, Trump may never have been elected.
This is all perfectly valid but it misses the point entirely.
The Democrats committed political seppuku. And nobody noticed until it was far, far too late.
The first cut, perhaps the deepest, was a fundamental misunderstanding of the mood of the electorate. All communicators know the importance of understanding who it is you’re trying to reach.
Whether it was hubris or a lack of confidence that caused it, who knows, but they made a very deliberate choice to target their messaging at women and immigrants. They assumed, because these groups favoured them traditionally they will continue to have an outsized influence on things.
Just because something has happened before doesn’t mean it will happen again. You must keep track of what your stakeholders think and feel.
Trump 2.0 serves as a stark reminder that pollsters, politicians, and the media still fundamentally misunderstand their audiences. Despite the wealth of data and analysis at their disposal, many professionals in these fields failed to accurately gauge the pulse of the electorate. This misstep offers crucial insights for communicators across industries, particularly in understanding the importance of genuine two-way conversations.
Ignore it and you’ll be shouting your key messages out of an open window before you know it.
Both camps struggled to properly engage people in meaningful conversations about policy. Both were set to broadcast. Unfortunately for the Democrats, President-elect Trump had a better grasp of people’s grievances and the reality of life in the US in 2024.
Nobody broadcasts better than Trump. But any candidate could have beaten him, if they put in the time and energy to properly engage with voters and recognised their concerns.
The lesson here is clear for communicators and leaders worldwide: dialogue trumps monologue. Encouraging authentic engagement with your audience can provide a more accurate reflection of their needs, desires, and intentions, which in turn can inform more effective strategies and actions.
Social media does not win elections. Sure, a strong social game is extremely important but ignore traditional media at your peril.
This time around there was a clear gold medal winner in the meme olympics but turning online engagement into tangible votes remains elusive. This highlights a critical distinction for communicators to bear in mind – digital engagement, while an important metric, does not necessarily equate to real-world influence.
In 2024, traditional TV advertising was still heavily utilised by both candidates, despite evidence suggesting it has minimal impact on voter decisions. Imagine what you could do to engage communities if you took the hundreds of billions of dollars of digital and TV ad spend and invested it in an 18 month programme or proactive engagement.
Podcasts played a very interesting role too. I first noticed this with Trump’s appearance on Theo Von’s This Past Weekend and then on the Joe Rogan Experience. There were others to feature Trump and Harris, who targeted women largely.
Whatever the weather, the most significant predictor of voting intention remains, and is likely to always be, the economy’s impact on daily life, or at least the perception of such impact. This underscores the paramount importance of understanding what truly drives audience behaviour and decision-making.
For communicators, this means conducting thorough research to uncover the core issues that matter most to their audience, beyond superficial trends or surface-level engagement metrics.
We must evolve beyond business-as-usual practices and assumptions. We must work with our stakeholders and communities to create environments where genuine dialogue and understanding can thrive.
If we can do that we will better serve our audiences and achieve more meaningful, long-lasting influence.
This approach not only enhances the effectiveness of communication strategies but also builds trust and credibility, positioning communicators as reliable partners as we guide our organisations or clients towards their goals.
Trump 2.0 might not be the end of the world. In fact, I think it presents an invaluable opportunity for communicators, politicians of all stripes and the media to reflect and learn.
It is a call to action for those in leadership positions to re-evaluate how they engage with their audiences, ensuring that communication efforts are more aligned with the realities and concerns of the people they aim to influence.
By prioritising two-way conversations, understanding the economic drivers of behaviour, and wisely balancing digital and traditional media efforts, communicators can adapt to the evolving landscape and make a more significant impact.
Clearview Communications 